436.300 jobs: the energy transition’s record – and why it is hanging in the balance

In 2025, 436,300 people in Germany were employed in the renewable energy sector – a new record high since the introduction of the EEG. This is shown in the Bertelsmann Stiftung’s latest Focus Paper. However, it would be a mistake to simply celebrate this good news and carry on as before. The same study shows just how quickly a record high can turn into a slump.

Gross employment in the renewable energy sector in 2025 by technology, total 436,300. Colour: trend since 2023. Source: GWS Briefing 2026/12.

A record on a rollercoaster

The fact that the energy transition creates jobs is nothing new – it is only the figure that is new. The pattern behind it is also well known: employment in the renewables sector is extremely sensitive to policy. A boom until 2011, a slump in solar from 2012, a slump in wind from 2017, stagnation, then a renewed upturn. We have described why this is a recurring pattern rather than an exception in ‘The Energy Transition and the Industrial Location’. What we see every day at GREENGANY is confirmed by the figures in the study: energy policy is always also labour market and industrial policy.

What the record figure doesn’t reveal at first glance

A record figure – and behind it, seven completely different stories. The figure of 436,300 brings all these technologies together into a single statistic – and that is precisely where the contrasts disappear. Wind power is driving the upturn. Photovoltaics, on the other hand, is losing jobs, even though there have rarely been so many solar installations: over 17 per cent fewer employees since 2023, because the modules come predominantly from abroad (specifically from China). More systems, less domestic employment. The heat pump sector illustrates this most clearly: the debate over the Heating Act alone caused installations to plummet from 350,000 (2023) to 200,000 (2024) – and jobs along with them. The fact that sales rose again to just under 300,000 in 2025 does not alter this lesson; on the contrary, it shows just how directly jobs in the skilled trades depend on political reliability.

Why the record is hanging in the balance

The German government is working on four initiatives simultaneously: the Grid Package, the amendment to the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG), the Building Modernisation Act and the Security of Supply Act. Each pursues its own clear objectives – affordability, security of supply, a stable system – yet the specific details of all four are highly contentious. Just how contentious this is can be seen from the planned redispatch reservation: new plants in congestion regions are to forgo compensation for up to ten years – this would affect almost a quarter of all districts, with around 45 billion euros in upcoming investments at stake, and even the Conference of State Energy Ministers rejects the provision. The study calls for the reforms not to be assessed in isolation: the redispatch reservation, construction cost subsidies, new direct marketing obligations, the abolition of subsidies for small rooftop installations, amended heating regulations and a capacity market levy can, taken together, have a significantly greater impact than any measure on its own – and trigger precisely the reluctance to invest that has already cost the sector jobs on two occasions. Its key recommendation: to make the reforms “employment-proof” – with planning certainty rather than a stop-and-go approach, a joint implementation roadmap, and a labour market impact assessment before a law comes into force, not only after jobs have been lost.

It’s not just about how many jobs – but which ones

The study looks beyond mere job numbers. As the share of renewables grows, the focus is shifting – away from simply building individual plants, towards integration into a complex system comprising grids, storage facilities, digital control systems and the heat transition. This also means that the skills in demand are changing: in the skilled trades and planning, as well as in grid operation, storage integration and new energy services. In future, the decisive factor will not only be how many jobs are created, but whether the right skills are available where they are needed.

What the Bertelsmann Foundation recommends – and where we’re starting with GREENGANY

Where are these skills to come from? The study identifies two approaches. Firstly: providing targeted upskilling for existing staff – through further training organised in a modular and work-compatible way, so that no one is absent from work for long periods. Secondly: facilitating “career changes from related sectors and from areas affected by structural change” – employees from industry and the fossil fuel sector should be given the opportunity to switch to renewables.

This is precisely where we at GREENGANY see the gap every day: Many of these people possess transferable skills, but are overlooked because recruitment processes filter candidates based on CV keywords rather than actual ability. And because skills can never be transferred one-to-one, career transitions and upskilling go hand in hand.

That’s why we built GREENGANY: our matching system identifies transferable skills – even when different sectors use different terms to describe the same competence. The GANY Score shows both sides, as a percentage, how well the profile and the role match, and the skills gap analysis turns any gaps not into a deal-breaker, but into a skills development pathway. For career changers, the potential analysis goes one step further: it shows where their own skills best align with the renewables sector – and immediately provides suitable job recommendations.

Conclusion

Energy policy is always also labour market and industrial policy. The 436,300 jobs projected for 2025 demonstrate the potential inherent in the energy transition – the 25 years leading up to that point show just how much this potential depends on reliable policy. Employment grows when targets, funding and approvals are aligned, and collapses when abrupt changes of course unsettle investors. It does not depend solely on expansion figures, but on where value is created and whether the necessary skills are available in good time where they are needed.

The study’s key recommendation is therefore to ensure that the planned reforms are ‘employment-friendly’: the Federal Government should prevent four draft bills from collectively triggering a reluctance to invest. For the history of renewable energy offers a clear warning – lost domestic value creation, closed businesses and skilled workers who have moved away cannot be quickly recovered if expansion is to be accelerated again later.

Source: Fingerhut, J. & Wink, R. (2026): Employment in the renewable energy sector. Bertelsmann Stiftung (ed.), Gütersloh; GWS Briefing 2026/12.